| Yazarlar |
Doç. Dr. Emrah YALÇIN
Kırşehir Ahi Evran Üniversitesi, Türkiye |
| Özet |
| This study details an integrated framework for assessing the water supply reliability of a multi-purpose reservoir under different climate change scenarios, with the case of the Akmese Project in northwest Turkey. In this assessment, the precipitation and temperature simulations of 24 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Couple Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) are analyzed using two statistical bias correction methods, namely, linear scaling and distribution mapping, to produce the best-performing multi-model ensemble predictions under two different Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585). The future inflow rates of the Akmese reservoir are simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The CROPWAT model is utilized to estimate crop water and crop irrigation requirements under the projected climate conditions. The effects of changing climate on the lake evaporation rates are also taken into consideration in analyzing the future reservoir water availability for domestic usages, irrigation demands, and downstream environmental flow requirements. The 25-year monthly reservoir operations are conducted with the changing inputs of the projected inflows, lake evaporation rates, and irrigation requirements for the historical period of 1990-2014 and near-, mid-, and long-future periods of 2025-2049, 2050-2074, and 2075-2099, respectively. The results indicate that the projected changes in the hydro-climatic conditions of the Akmese Basin will adversely impact the reservoir water availability. Under the high-forcing scenario SSP585, 9.26 and 22.11% of the total water demand, and 20.17 and 38.89% of the total irrigation requirement cannot be supplied, in turn, in the mid- and long-future periods. |
| Anahtar Kelimeler |
| CMIP6 | Irrigation | Mediterranean | Multi-model ensemble | SWAT model | Water availability |
| Makale Türü | Özgün Makale |
| Makale Alt Türü | SSCI, AHCI, SCI, SCI-Exp dergilerinde yayımlanan tam makale |
| Dergi Adı | THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY |
| Dergi ISSN | 0177-798X |
| Dergi Tarandığı Indeksler | SCI-Expanded |
| Dergi Grubu | Q3 |
| Makale Dili | İngilizce |
| Basım Tarihi | 01-2024 |
| Cilt No | 155 |
| Sayı | 1 |
| Sayfalar | 679 / 699 |
| Doi Numarası | 10.1007/s00704-023-04657-0 |
| Makale Linki | https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04657-0 |
| Atıf Sayıları | |
| WoS | 2 |
| SCOPUS | 2 |
| Google Scholar | 4 |
