Assessing climate change impacts on precipitation and remperature in a Mediterranean basin under CMIP6 scenarios
Yazarlar (2)
Doç. Dr. Emrah YALÇIN
Kırşehir Ahi Evran Üniversitesi, Türkiye
Kübra Koparal
Kirşehir Ahi Evran Üniversitesi, Türkiye
| Makale Türü |
Özgün Makale
(Ulusal alan endekslerinde (TR Dizin, ULAKBİM) yayınlanan tam makale)
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| Dergi Adı | Black Sea Journal of Engineering and Science | ||
| Dergi ISSN | 2619-8991 | ||
| Dergi Tarandığı Indeksler | TR DİZİN | ||
| Makale Dili | İngilizce | Basım Tarihi | 11-2025 |
| Cilt / Sayı / Sayfa | 8 / 6 / 1739–1747 | DOI | 10.34248/bsengineering.1746627 |
| Makale Linki | https://doi.org/10.34248/bsengineering.1746627 | ||
| Özet |
| This study explores projected climate change within a Mediterranean basin, with a particular focus on Ermenek Creek in southern Türkiye. The assessment utilizes precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature simulations from 24 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) belonging to the latest, sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to develop multi-model ensemble (MME) projections under both the CMIP6 historical experiment and two shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios: the mid-range SSP2-4.5 and the high-end SSP5-8.5. The MMEs are constructed using the best-performing CMIP6 GCMs at the Alanya and Hadim meteorological stations (MSs), which serve as representative synoptic points for the Ermenek watershed. To adequately represent model projection uncertainty, ensemble means are computed for each climate variable using bias-corrected simulations of one to eight models, with the optimal ensemble size determined through a multi-criteria basin-wide performance assessment relative to observed data. Findings reveal that incorporating more than three GCMs yields only peripheral improvements in simulation performance across evaluation metrics. Consequently, climate projections are derived using MMEs composed of the top three performing models and are analyzed over three 25-year periods between the years 2025 and 2099, relative to the historical baseline of 1968-2014. By reaching the end of the century, annual average maximum/minimum temperatures are expected to rise by up to 3.04°C/2.74°C at the Alanya MS and 3.34°C/2.94°C at the Hadim MS under SSP2-4.5 ... |
| Anahtar Kelimeler |
| Climate change | Temperature | Precipitation | CMIP6 | Multi-model ensemble | Mediterranean hot spot |
BM Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları
| Atıf Sayıları | |
| Google Scholar | 1 |