| The study aimed to examine the relationship between climate change and civil disorder in the Mediterranean, Middle East, and North African countries. Countries are divided into two groups according to their political risk index (70 points). Accordingly, the first group of countries comprised France, Spain, Italy, Turkey, Croatia, Slovenia, Greece, Malta, and Cyprus, and the second are Lebanon, Libya, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco. While the first group represents European countries, the second group is generally the Middle East and North African countries. For the empirical analysis, Dumitrescu and Hurlin (Econ Model 29(4):1450–1460, 2012) panel causality test is utilized to test the causal relationship between precipitation, temperature, and civil disorder covering 2001–2016. According to the empirical results, a cross-sectional dependency in each country group which means a shock in one country affects the other countries in the panel. Causality test results show a causal relationship from temperature to civil disorder in Algeria, Tunisia, Italy, and Greece. However, there is no significant causal relationship from precipitation to civil disorder in any country. The findings show that economic policies and policy choices emerge as an essential tool to deal with climate change. |
Doç. Dr. Emrah SOFUOĞLU
