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A time-series prediction model of acute myocardial infarction in northern of Iran: the risk of climate change and religious mourning       
Yazarlar
Hamid Sharif Nia
 Özkan GÖRGÜLÜ Özkan GÖRGÜLÜ
Kırşehir Ahi Evran Üniversitesi, Türkiye
Navaz Naghavi
Erika Sivarajan Froelıcher
Fatemeh Khoshnavay Fomani
Amir Hossein Goudarzian
Saeed Pahlevan Sharıf
Roghiyeh Pourkia
Ali Akbar Haghdoost
Özet
Background Although various studies have been conducted on the effects of seasonal climate changes or emotional variables on the risk of AMI, many of them have limitations to determine the predictable model. The currents study is conducted to assess the effects of meteorological and emotional variables on the incidence and epidemiological occurrence of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in Sari (capital of Mazandaran, Iran) during 2011-2018. Methods In this study, a time series analysis was used to determine the variation of variables over time. All series were seasonally adjusted and Poisson regression analysis was performed. In the analysis of meteorological data and emotional distress due to religious mourning events, the best results were obtained by autoregressive moving average (ARMA) (5,5) model. Results It was determined that average temperature, sunshine, and rain variables had a significant effect on death. A total of 2375 AMI's were enrolled. Average temperate (degrees C) and sunshine hours a day (h/day) had a statistically significant relationship with the number of AMI's (beta = 0.011, P = 0.014). For every extra degree of temperature increase, the risk of AMI rose [OR = 1.011 (95%CI 1.00, 1.02)]. For every extra hour of sunshine, a day a statistically significant increase [OR = 1.02 (95% CI 1.01, 1.04)] in AMI risk occurred (beta = 0.025, P = 0.001). Religious mourning events increase the risk of AMI 1.05 times more. The other independent variables have no significant effects on AMI's (P > 0.05). Conclusion Results demonstrate that sunshine hours and the average temperature had a significant effect on the risk of AMI. Moreover, emotional distress due to religious morning events increases AMI. More specific research on this topic is recommended.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Acute myocardial infarction | Iran | Time series | Weather
Makale Türü Özgün Makale
Makale Alt Türü SSCI, AHCI, SCI, SCI-Exp dergilerinde yayımlanan tam makale
Dergi Adı BMC CARDIOVASCULAR DISORDERS
Dergi ISSN 1471-2261
Dergi Tarandığı Indeksler SCI-Expanded
Dergi Grubu Q3
Makale Dili Türkçe
Basım Tarihi 11-2021
Cilt No 21
Sayı 1
Sayfalar 1 / 11
Doi Numarası 10.1186/s12872-021-02372-0
Makale Linki http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12872-021-02372-0