img
img
A time-series prediction model of acute myocardial infarction in northern of Iran: the risk of climate change and religious mourning       
Yazarlar (9)
Hamid Sharif Nia
Cardiovascular Research Center Mazums, İran
Prof. Dr. Özkan GÖRGÜLÜ Prof. Dr. Özkan GÖRGÜLÜ
Kırşehir Ahi Evran Üniversitesi, Türkiye
Navaz Naghavi
Taylor's University Malaysia, Malezya
Erika Sivarajan Froelıcher
University Of California, San Francisco, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri
Fatemeh Khoshnavay Fomani
School Of Nursing Midwifery, İran
Amir Hossein Goudarzian
Mazandaran University Of Medical Sciences, İran
Saeed Pahlevan Sharıf
Taylor's University Malaysia, Malezya
Roghiyeh Pourkia
Babol University Of Medical Sciences, İran
Ali Akbar Haghdoost
Modeling İn Health Research Center, Institute For Futures Studies İn Health, Kerman University Of Me, İran
Devamını Göster
Özet
Background Although various studies have been conducted on the effects of seasonal climate changes or emotional variables on the risk of AMI, many of them have limitations to determine the predictable model. The currents study is conducted to assess the effects of meteorological and emotional variables on the incidence and epidemiological occurrence of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in Sari (capital of Mazandaran, Iran) during 2011-2018. Methods In this study, a time series analysis was used to determine the variation of variables over time. All series were seasonally adjusted and Poisson regression analysis was performed. In the analysis of meteorological data and emotional distress due to religious mourning events, the best results were obtained by autoregressive moving average (ARMA) (5,5) model. Results It was determined that average temperature, sunshine, and rain variables had a significant effect on death. A total of 2375 AMI's were enrolled. Average temperate (degrees C) and sunshine hours a day (h/day) had a statistically significant relationship with the number of AMI's (beta = 0.011, P = 0.014). For every extra degree of temperature increase, the risk of AMI rose [OR = 1.011 (95%CI 1.00, 1.02)]. For every extra hour of sunshine, a day a statistically significant increase [OR = 1.02 (95% CI 1.01, 1.04)] in AMI risk occurred (beta = 0.025, P = 0.001). Religious mourning events increase the risk of AMI 1.05 times more. The other independent variables have no significant effects on AMI's (P > 0.05). Conclusion Results demonstrate that sunshine hours and the average temperature had a significant effect on the risk of AMI. Moreover, emotional distress due to religious morning events increases AMI. More specific research on this topic is recommended.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Acute myocardial infarction | Iran | Time series | Weather
Makale Türü Özgün Makale
Makale Alt Türü SSCI, AHCI, SCI, SCI-Exp dergilerinde yayınlanan tam makale
Dergi Adı BMC CARDIOVASCULAR DISORDERS
Dergi ISSN 1471-2261 Wos Dergi Scopus Dergi
Dergi Tarandığı Indeksler SCI-Expanded
Dergi Grubu Q3
Makale Dili Türkçe
Basım Tarihi 11-2021
Cilt No 21
Sayı 1
Sayfalar 1 / 11
Doi Numarası 10.1186/s12872-021-02372-0
Makale Linki http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12872-021-02372-0